Twins offense awakensThe Texas Rangers aren’t a team in doubt when ites to offensive production. They put a 20 spot up in a 20-6 clubbing of the Twins on Monday. Overall for the series the Twins have been consistent, scoring a total of 22 runs in 3 games and amassing a total of 36 hits. This has to be encouraging to a Twins team that has been hovering near the bottom of most offensive statistical categories in the majors. Minnesota has no shot at a wild card, trailing the Yankees by 15.5 games but they’re a reachable 6 games behind the division leading Detroit Tigers with 58 games remaining of the season. Historically, the Twins have always been a team that win quietly.

Mauer PowerSuperstar catcher Joe Mauer has finally gotten the monkey off of his back and hit his 1st home run of the season in 163 at-bats. Mauer was injured for most of the season but has finally picked up the level of his game in the last 19 games. His batting average has climbed from .242 on July 7th to .288 on July 27th. In that period of time his on base percentage has also risen 61 points. Mauer’s responsible for his small home run total but can’t be held accountable for his lack of runs batted in (18). He plays on a team that’s hit just 64 home runs on the season and is batting a mere .250. Look for Joe Mauer to progressively regain his old form as this is bing a crucial part of the season and the Twins need to win series in order to get in contention.Cuddyer, on fireNot only is July a hot time of the year, it’s a hot time for Michael Cuddyer. Without question, Cuddyer is the MVP of the team this season. In the month of July, Cuddyer is 32 for 90 with 19 runs, 5 HR and 21 RBI. His consistent play has led him to a 15 HR, 51 RBI, .299 BA. He’s the backbone of the team. The Twins can expect more steady play as they attempt to win the series with starter Scott Baker (8-5, 2.88) on the mound.Key Note: In his last 3 starts, Scott Baker is 3-0 and in 17 1/3 innings, has given up just 1 run on 12 hits. Minnesota has an edge with Baker on the mound.Veteran hitting machineInfielder Michael Young might not hit for power but he’s been a very productive player for Texas. Although he remains in single digits in home runs, Young has 71 RBI on the season and leads the team in hitting with a .331 BA. 8 out of his 9 home runs havee at home this season where he’s hit .348. In his last 8 games, Young has gotten 3 hits or better 3 times. In that 8 game span he’s 15 for 34 with 10 runs, 1 HR and 8 RBI. Young is hitting just .273 in 22 at-bats against Baker but expect him to continue the hot hitting as Texas is looking to position themselves in the division with a 2 game lead over the Los Angeles Angels.Trends 

  • Twins are 5-1 in their last 6 games as an underdog of +110 to +150 on the money line
  • Twins are 5-1 in their last 6 in game 4 of a series
  • Twins are 4-1 in their last 5 against the American League West
  • Twins are 5-0 in Baker’s last 5 starts vs. Rangers
  • Twins are 9-2 in their last 11 meetings

I think that the Twins are a very streaky team that can go on big runs. Texas was overrated by the MLB lines makers at -190 with Colby Lewis starting and -215 with C,J, Wilson at the mound. The Rangers are a better team that’s at home but those lines seemed too favorable to Minnesota backers and they cashed.The line for this game is Texas -152 and the total is 9,5.

In my opinion, the total is dependent upon if Texas can hit off of pitcher in Scott Baker. Baker’s been nearly flawless in 17 1/3 innings and the Rangers will be missing third baseman Adrian Beltre who’s been hitting well before he went on the disabled list. He also hit .345 against Scott Baker. Minnesota, not known for their offense, has been putting up runs on a consistent basis as of late. Topound that, starter Matt Harrison hasn’t fared well against the Twins. For his career, he’s 0-2 with a 6.46 ERA . Minnesota starter Scott Baker hasn’t been spectacular but has held his own against the Rangers with a career 4-2 mark with a 4.41 ERA.Most of the history and recent play leans towards taking the dog here.Oue of the gameOf course taking a decisive underdog is always a tough thing to do but this could be a good spot. I’m going to lean towards the total. Baker has been brilliant as of late and that can’t be ignored. Texas was inept in their last game and are without slugger Adrian Beltre. The total seems the way to go. Take the under.Pick: Minnesota – Texas Under 9.5

 

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