I have already written a research report on Game 1 of this series with a solid play on the heavily favored Philadelphia Phillies. I must note that it is extremely rare that I ever play a favorite above -200, but when the model produces these opportunities they are for strong reasons.

This is a three game set and obviously if the Phillies win Game 1 I do believe they will win the series and possibly start off the season with a sweep. 

Game 2 will be played Saturday starting at 7:05 and will feature the Phillies second ace Cliff lee facing Houston’s No. 2 starter Wandy Rodriguez. The current members of the Houston Astros have had success batting .316 with a .570 slugging percentage, but it is over a suspect sample size of just 38 at-bats.

Most of the time Spring numbers are not a reliable indicator of how the beginning of the regular season will go for any player. However, Rodriguez struggled this spring to an 0-3 record and 8.04 ERA and 1.91 WHIP. He had struggled in the 2010 Spring Season and that translated to a very slow start in April.

Rodriguez was a far better starter in home games than away and this also works against him and his Houston Astros teammates in game 2. He posted a 4-7 record with a 4.41 ERA in 16 road starts while posting an impressive 7-5 record with a 2.82 ERA in 16 home starts in 2010. 

Lee posted a 2.79 ERA and allowed a .223 batting average in 13 home starts last season. Cliff Lee bes dominating when he gets the first pitch in for strike one and that first pitch will be the best offering the opponents will see in their at-bat. Swinging at the first pitch has produced some favorable results with opponents hitting .348.

Problem is that if a team goes after Lee early in the count then his pitch count will be extremely low and brings in the high probability of working at least eight innings. After 0-1 counts batters are hitting just .223; after 1-0 batters are hitting just .219; after 1-2 counts batters are hitting .154. Lee will dominate the Astros offense and the Phillies will score enough to get the win. 

I like the Phillies in this game using the Run-Line. 

Game 3

This is an intriguing matchup with former Phillies starter J.A. Happ going up against his former team and starter Roy Oswalt. Happ was part of last year’s July 31 trade that brought Oswalt to the Phillies from Houston. Happ was drafted in the third round and 92nd overall by the Phillies in 2004. After the trade Happ performed well posting nine quality starts, a 3.75 ERA, and a 1.32 WHIP in 13 starts.

Being the third starter in the Astros rotation is a spot where Happ can have an excellent season. He has done very well against sub. 500 teams in his 4-year career posting a 14-5 record with a 2.61 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in 35 games including 25 starts. However, he is going against a starter that would be the ace on the large majority of staffs in MLB. 

Oswalt had more wins with the Phillies with seven than he had with the Astros with six despite having eight fewer quality starts. This not only reflects his pitching excellence, but also brings light to the anemic Astros offense. 

This line may be the first that is released by the MLB books under -200, but if the Phillies win the first two games of this series than it will most likely place the Phillies in another heavy favorite role. Phillies using the Run Line is the lean.  

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