The 2010 NL Central was supposed to belong to the St. Louis Cardinals who had been posted on the MLB Odds boards as a -160 chalk by the time Opening Day arrived. St. Louis looked the part of a postseason club by winning seven of its first eight series, including taking two sets from the Cincinnati Reds and a 4-game sweep of the Atlanta Braves.  In fact, the Redbirds played very well against the top NL teams, beating the Reds 12 of the 18 times the two clubs got together. 

As well as the Cardinals played against the eventual playoff quartet (40-15 vs. Braves, Giants, Phillies, Reds), they were mediocre in the rest of their schedule (46-51).  And as much as the Reds struggled against St. Louis, they made up for it going 43-18 against the other NL Central clubs en route to a 91-win season for their first division title and playoff appearance since 1995. 

Sportsbooks see a 3-team race in the division this time with the Reds and Cardinals joined by the Milwaukee Brewers.  Cincinnati (+175) is the favorite, but St. Louis (+195) and Milwaukee (+215) aren’t far behind with the trio bunched in the 84-87 win range.  With both the Cards and Brewers dealing with injuries to staff aces, Dusty Baker and the Reds appear poised to repeat. 

Now that the pre-season is in full swing, and MLB betting trends are already starting to take shape, lets examine how these teams are shaping up for this season to help give you, the MLB Bettor, an early look at this seasons big picture.

Cincinnati Reds (+175 to win NL Central; 86½ wins OVER -105)

When a team moves up or down by more than 80 win percentage points from one season to the next, it bears closer examination.  This is especially true for small- or mid-market sized franchises who are more susceptible to one key injury/retirement or one big free agent splash. 

Examining how Cincinnati went from 78 wins and 4th-place finish in the NL Central in 2009 to 91 wins and the division crown in 2010 requires only looking at a single column of stats: Runs Scored.  The Reds ranked 11th in the NL in ’09 with 673 runs before exploding with an NL-best 790 in 2010, that 17% increase befitting the extra 16.7% of wins.  In many ways, it was a free agent that provided that extra offense, and his name was Jay Joey Scott. 

Injuries limited the trio of Joey Votto, Scott Rolen and Jay Bruce to 272 games in 2009; the threebined to play 159 extra games in 2010 while increasing the power they provided from 50 HR to 82 HR and adding 116 runs to the ledger.  That would account for all but one of those extra plate crossing from 2009-10. Rolen would be the most likely of the trio to regress since the likelihood of him playing two successive seasons of 130+ games is remote at best.  But Votto and Bruce are also poised to be even better, assuming good health. 

Brandon Phillips gives the New Red Machine a lot of pop at second base with defensive whiz-kid Paul Janish at short.  Miguel Cairo is the utility glove and potential long-term 3B replacement for Rolen.  Ramon Hernandez and Ryan Hannigan will split time at catcher. 

Drew Stubbs in center is another player who could experience a market correction in his second full season.  He’s expected to be the leadoff hitter, so struggles could really impact the Reds.  Jonny Gomespletes the outfield in left with Fred Lewis the fourth outfielder. 

Reds pitchers improved their ERA from 4.18 in 2009 to 4.02 in 2010, but dropped from 7th to 8th in the NL.  Keeping this group healthy will be more important than keeping Rolen healthy.  Edinson Volquez may hold the key along with Johnny Cueto.  Bronson Arroyo isn’t flashy but gets the job done as the most consistent and experienced starter going into ’10.  Homer Bailey and Travis Wood, the only southpaw, figure toplete the rotation but stay tuned. 

Francisco Cordero is the closer.  Aroldis Chapman’s control will be the key if he bes the top setup arm or even assumes Cordero’s role.  Nick Masset and Bill Bray are in middle relief roles but watch for Matt Maloney in a middle/setup slot. 

St. Louis Cardinals (+195 to win NL Central; 83½ wins OVER -125)

The general consensus is if the Cardinals couldn’t win with Adam Wainwright last season, they won’t win without him in 2011.  No doubt the loss is big, and should they fall a game or two short of the division flag it will leave fans and bettors alike wondering what if the club had Wainwright for 30 starts instead of Kyle McClellan. 

Wainwright’s absence doesn’t mean St. Louis can’t still win the NL Central, though it wouldn’t take more than 1-2 more key injuries to really derail the Busch Wagon. 

McClellan actually looks more than ready to step up in Wainwright’s rotation slot.  The righthander was solid out of the pen last season and has enjoyed a very solid spring so far along with Kyle Lohse who is looking to rebound from a poor 2010.  Chris Carpenter has to stay healthy, and at 35 with his past that is not a given.  St. Louis will get a full season from Jake Westbrook who looked good aftering over from Cleveland last July. 

The key to the rotation is Jaime Garcia who has been knocked around in spring action.  He’s the only southpaw in the mix and there isn’t much depth behind the current quintet. 

Removing McClellan from relief leaves manager Tony La Russa resetting his bullpen.  Ryan Franklin remains the closer with primary bridge work from Jason Motte, Mitchell Boggs and Trever Miller. 

The club was unable to work out a new mega-extension with Albert Pujols, but he will at least be leading the Cardinals offense this season.  Teamed with Matt Holliday, it’s as potent a pair of bats as you can find.  But is there enough support around on this offense?

Colby Rasmus in center and David Freese at third are both capable of adding to the attack, but the middle of the infield is light with Skip Schumaker and Ryan Theriot.  Lance Berkman was signed to be an everyday right-fielder, and counting on him to hold up for more than 110 games is asking for disappointment. 

Milwaukee Brewers (+215 to win NL Central; 85 wins OVER -110)

Much of the early excitement surrounding the Brewers has been tempered by the injury to newly-acquired staff ace Zack Greinke.  The former AL Cy Young winner fractured a rib playing basketball and will not be ready to pitch until mid-April at the earliest.  Given how ribs can be slow to heal and easy to re-injure, Greinke’s savior status has to be put on hold for now. 

Greinke hasn’t been lonely in the Milwaukee trainer’s room this spring.  Numerous other Brewers regulars have been nursing pains, including outfielders Ryan Braun and Corey Hart, catcher Jonathan Lucroy, second baseman Rickie Weeks and pitcher Manny Parra who is returning from hip surgery and could be the temporary replacement for Grienke in the rotation. 

Milwaukee also added Shaun Marcum in a trade with Toronto this winter, and he’ll probably slot in behind Yovani Gallardo and in front of Chris Narveson as the top 3 in the rotation to begin the season.  Veteran lefty Randy Wolf has been hammered this spring, but he figures to be the fourth starter to begin with. John Axford closes with Kameron Loe and Takashi Saito the two most likely to set Axford up. 

It’s certainly a great lineup that could carry a team to a division title with just a little bit of pitching.  Milwaukee ranked fourth in the NL with over 4.6 runs per game, second with 182 homers and third in OPS (.759).  Five 30-HR threats fill the order with Braun, Hart, Weeks, Prince Fielder and Casey McGehee. 

Yuniesky Betancourt, who apanied Greinke from Kansas City in that deal, will be at short and popped 16 for the Royals a year ago.  A breakout season from Carlos Gomez in center would make it the top offense in the NL this season. 

Houston Astros (+2000 to win NL Central; 72½ wins OVER -120)

No team overachieved as much the second half of 2010 than Houston, either that or Berkman and Roy Oswalt’s were bigger clubhouse cancers than anyone knew.  Let’s go with the former to explain how the Astros managed to go 36-27 from late-July to the end of the season. 

It also makes for a tough time trying to handicap a team when it far exceeds its perceived talent.  How Houston won down the stretch is no mystery: pitching.  The club got very consistent starting pitching from Brett Myers all season, plus good stuff from lefthanders Wandy Rodriguez and JA Happ after Happ came over from Philly in the Oswalt trade.  Brandon Lyon closed with Wilton Lopez and Tim Byrdak filling the gap from starters to closer. 

Rodriguez is having shoulder trouble this spring, and its’ difficult to expect Myers to pitch as well as he did in 2010.  There’s still the potential for a good staff, especially if Happ continues to grow and Bud Norris figures out how to beat teams other than the Cardinals.  A step back in performance for the staff overall is more likely, however. 

Houston will have a new middle infield, and neither shortstop Clint Barmes or second baseman Bill Hall are really known for solid defensive work. They should add pop to a lineup that finished last in the NL in homers last season with 108.  Chris Johnson is a solid young third baseman and the club hopes Brent Wallace can get his game in gear at first.

The outfield is the strength of the Astros with Carlos Lee, Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn, plus there’s depth with Jason Bourgeois and Brian Bogusevic. 

Chicago Cubs (+370 to win NL Central; 82½ wins OVER -110)

The good news on Second City‘s North Side is at least the Cubs are trying. They’ve even installed a new, state-of-art pitching machine this winter. Unfortunately it beat them 4-1 in a recent spring training game. 

All joking aside, two expensive outfielders have dragged this team down from its 97-win summit in 2008 when the Cubs won a second straight NL Central crown.  If Chicago is going to make the leap from a 5th-place team to a division contender this season, Alfonso Soriano and Kosuke Fukudome (or their replacements) have to contribute. Marlon Byrdpletes the outfield in center, and look for Tyler Colvin to eventually supplant Fukudome. 

The infield is a decent foursome that could be even better if Aramis Ramirez stays healthy at third and Carlos Pena can at least bat .250ing over from the AL.  Starlin Castro is an exciting young talent at short with Blake DeWitt penciled in at second though Jeff Baker could eventually take that spot. 

There is potential in the rotation that was beefed up with the addition of Pena’s former Tampa Bay teammate Matt Garza.  Carlos Zambrano, Randy Wells and Ryan Dempster are each having solid springs, as is Carlos Marmol at the back end of the bullpen. 

Pittsburgh Pirates (+3500 to win NL Central; 67 wins OVER -115)

Uh, no.  It’s that simple, the Pirates will not contend this season. Or next and beyond.  They probably won’t lose 105 games again, the most since they dropped 113 in 1890 when the team was known as the Pittsburgh Alleghenys.  Baseball being baseball, the Bucs are not really a bad bet to hit the 67-win total, but 96+ losses, a 19th-straight losing season, seems more likely. 

There’s plenty to like about a lineup that has young studs on their way up in outfielders Andrew McCutchen and Jose Tabata plus infielders Neil Walker and Pedro Alvarez.  There’s just nothing else to like. 

And there’s nothing to like about a rotation with Paul Maholm, Ross Ohlendorf, Kevin Correia and James McDonald.  Maybe one will surprise, but then winning 10 games with an ERA not much above 4.00 would be a huge year right now for a Pirates starting pitcher. 

NL Central Projected Order of Finish:

1. Cincinnati (89-73)

2. Milwaukee (87-75)

3. St. Louis (86-76)

4. Chicago (79-83)

5. Houston (73-89)

6. Pittsburgh (63-99)

 

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