Friday in Atlanta will mark the second time in eight days that the two teams who were preseason favorites to battle for the NL East crown will square off in a key series. Last weekend in Philly the Braves took two of three from their hosts as Atlanta’s pitching staff from top to bottom proved it measured up to the Phillies’ starters and bullpen, holding the Philadelphia offense to five runs over three games. Friday night the Phils send Cole Hamels back to the hill, just five days after Atlanta beat him last Sunday night.

Hamels vs. the Braves…. again

Tonight’s game will mark the third time that Hamels (4-2, 2.83 ERA, 0.99 WHIP) will have faced the Braves this season. Sunday night, which was also his last outing, he allowed five hits and three runs over seven innings, and despite taking the loss, he still struck out nine and walked just one.

Hamels was hurt by the long ball Sunday, allowing two deep shots. Hamels shut down the Braves on April 10, allowing four hits over seven shutout innings (1 BB, 8 K) in helping his team earn a 3-0 victory. Hamels is facing Atlanta for the 22nd time in his career, going 10-6 with a 3.72 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in these meetings.

The Philadelphia Phillies enter the contest after taking two of three from the second-place Marlins, with the final game of the series being ae-from-behind 5-3 victory over Florida. Jimmy Rollins slammed a two-out, two-run single in the ninth toplete Wednesday’seback. Monday night Rollins led off the game with a home run.

When Rollins was re-inserted into the leadoff spot on May 3 he was hitting .271. Now he is batting .283, and since regaining his table-setter role has stolen three bases, scored six runs, and is gradually making a little bit more happen every day for a Phillies offense that has struggled to find consistency. Philly hopes to get steady No. 1 catcher Carlos Ruiz back behind the plate for this series. He has been on the DL with a sore back.

Everything’s Beachy in Georgia

The Atlanta Braves will counter with young righty Brandon Beachy (1-1, 2.98 ERA, 0.97 WHIP). Beachy is winless in three career starts versus Philly, posting a 3.94 ERA and 1.50 WHIP, while failing to go beyond six innings in all three outings. His last game against the Phils on April 9 did not go very well, as he was pounded for seven hits and four runs over six innings as he ended up taking the loss in a 10-2 defeat.

Despite three straight quality starts this season (1.89 ERA, 0.63 WHIP), Beachy has not earned a decision in any of them. In his last outing he pitched six strong innings against Milwaukee, allowing four hits, one unearned run, and striking out a career-high nine batters. “He’s just not getting the wins, but for me he’s pitched well enough to have at least four wins,” manager Fredi Gonzalez said of Beachy, who has a team-best 45 strikeouts.

The Braves offense has been stroking the long ball lately. In the past four games, Atlanta has launched a total of eight taters. The biggest one during that stretch was a game-tying, seventh-inning grand slam on Thursday night by Martin Prado. It helped the Bravese back and defeat the Nationals 6-5 in 10 innings at home, avoiding what would have been a season-high, three-game losing streak.

Speaking of streaks, Brian McCann delivered the game-winning single versus Washington to extend his hitting streak to 12. While Hamels will have to be weary of McCann, Beachy will have to watch out for the “Flying Hawaiian.” Phillies center fielder Shane Victorino, 3-for-6 with a double off Beachy, will try to extend his hitting streak to 15 games. He is 13-for-26 with two doubles, two triples and a homer off Braves pitching in 2011.

Tonight’s game

The pick here is for Hamels to regain his mastery against the Braves and avoid losing to them twice in five days. SBR’s John Ryan has called for a play on the Phillies using the money line and the run line as well. MLB betting reports support this Philadelphia pick with these two trends.

Play Against – All teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (ATLANTA) – with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start, starting a over rested pitcher who is working on 7 or more days rest. (90-45 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.7%, +41.4 units. Rating = 3*).

Play Against – Any team (ATLANTA) – below-average hitting team (AVG <=.255) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA <=3.00) -NL, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.050 or better on the season-NL. (56-30 since 1997.) (65.1%, +25.7 units. Rating = 2*).

My Pick: Take the Phillies

 

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