The American League divisional races will be hotly contested throughout the season with several teams having the depth to be full-time contenders.

Let’s first take a look at the recently posted MLB odds to win the American league pennant. There are two distinct ways for each team to win the pennant. The first is to win their respective division and the second is to win the Wild Card having the best record of all teams that are not the divisional champions. The beauty of baseball is that although the odds suggest that there may be only a handful of teams worthy to be pennant contenders there is always a Cinderella team or two that makes their mark on the season and brings excitement to the stretch runs in September.

The American League Favorites

I am going to use odds provided by BetJamaica for this article, but be sure to check all the futures odds provided by the various sportsbooks listed at SBRodds to get the best bang for your bet.

The Boston Red Sox have been set as the strong favorite and are listed at +205. The Yankees are ranked second returning +365 followed by the Minnesota Twins returning +1015. Immediately, this has been declared a two horse race with both the Red Sox and Yankeespeting in the AL East division. So, the Wild Card team is likely projected to be one of these two teams and this is a reflection of results from seasons past as this incredible rivalry gets set for another season of battles.

The defending AL Champions Texas Rangers are a distant +1215, but are the favorites to win the AL West division and make the playoffs.  The Chicago White Soxe next and are returning +1415 and will be in toughpetition being in the same division as the Twins. Rounding out the rest of the listed teams Anaheim is listed at +1415, Tampa Bay Rays at +1615, Detroit Tigers +1615, Oakland A’s +1815, and Baltimore +3050.

Interesting to analyze that BetJam has listed at +625 any other team not listed above to win the American League Pennant. There are just four other teams not listed including the Toronto Blue Jays, the Cleveland Indians, the Kansas City Royals, and Seattle Mariners. I do not see any opportunity to play ‘the field’ given the highly suspect nature of all four of these teams. They are all about 70/1 long shots except for the Blue Jays where I would place them at about 35/1.

My initial wager is play the favorite Boston Red Sox, which represents the first time in my 18-year sports handicapping career that I am backing a preseason favorite.

The Red Sox

The Red Sox are loaded this year and the arrival of Adrain Gonzalez allows Kevin Youkilis to move from first to third base providing a significant defensive upgrade for the infield play. Moreover, the addition of Carl Crawford adds speed to the lineup and a tremendous bat to a very strong offensive lineup.

The starting rotation is the best in the American League and includes the best starter in baseball in Jon Lester. Add to him, Josh Beckett, John Lackey, Matsuzaka, Clay Buchholz, and knuckle baller Tim Wakefield and you have the needed depth to get through the marathon of a 162 game season.

Monitor the following situations as Boston has done very well in these and can offer you greater certainty when placing wagers this season. Boston is solid 22-7 making 14.5 units per one unit wager using the money line in home games facing a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better for the season spanning games played over the last three seasons.

The Red Sox offense certainly will not have extended periods of offensive struggles to score runs, but when this situationes up take advantage of it immediately. Boston is a near perfect 17-3 making 12.4 units per one unit wager using the money line in home games after scoring four runs or less in three straight games over the last three seasons.

The New York Yankees – Bet ‘UNDER’ Wins Total

The backend of the New York Yankees starting rotation will be their demise and I do not see them even remotely close to being the second best team in the American League. New pitching coach Rothschild may have the experience and knowledge to work on AJ Burnett’s mental toughness and approach to the game, but then that gives them only two quality starters topliment ace CC Sabathia. The last two spots are going to be highly suspect veterans in Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon. I would bet ‘UNDER’ their wins total.

Given the suspect starting rotation of ‘Sabathia and Hughes and then we lose’ the best betting opportunities wille when their bullpen is performing at a high level. Note that the Yankees are a solid 52-15 making 22.8 units per one unit wager against the money line in home games with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.000 the last five games spanning games played over the last three seasons.

Minnesota Twins

The Twins have concerns and question marks entering the season. none of which is higher in importance than the status of Justin Morneau, who has been out of game action since suffering a concussion July 7, 2010. He is not ready to play in a game, but is hopeful he will be able to start at some point in April.

Their closer Nathan is progressing at a very high rate after enduring Tommy John surgery. He is throwing 91 MPH in bullpen sessions where he is normally throwing 86 to 90 MPH at this time of the exhibition season.

The starting rotation needs Liriano to step up and be the ace of this staff to win the division and make a move in the playoffs to win the Pennant. I think all of these concerns are quite likely to be resolved favorably and the Twins are the best value bet on the board to win the American League Pennant.

Keep any eye out when the Twins opponent is a weak power hitting team. They are on a 15-2 run making 12.6 units per one unit wager using the money line when facing a terrible power team averaging 0.75 or less home runs per game in the second half of last season.

Tampa Bay Rays

With David Price as the ace of an under rated rotation the Rays can still bepetitive even with the massive losses to the bullpen and all-star out fielder Carl Crawford. The Rays may be just aspetitive as years past despite having cut their payroll from $72 million to just over $42 million. James Shields must have a rebound year from a horrid 2010 where he gave up 34 home runs and sported a 5.18 ERA. He is the elder states man of the rotation and must be a team leader for the Rays to have any shot at contending, having to play 18 games against the Red Sox ‘murderers row’ lineup. Just too many questions and holes to fill and all of them must be resolved if Tampa is going be a contender in the AL East.

Keep check of the Rays offensive production noting they are a solid 13-2 making 10.2 units per one unit wagered using the money line after scoring four runs or less in three straight games this season.

Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays return a starting rotation that is quite good and four of the starters posted strikeouts per nine innings pitched ratios over six. Brandon Morrow recorded and incredible 10.95 K/9 ratio last season.

Toronto has a tendency to perform well against a starting pitcher with strong control. Blue Jays are 21-10 making 12.3 units per one unit wagered using the money line in home games facing an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better over the last three seasons.

 

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