“A stretch of 24 years without the big one is a major stain against the All Blacks’ status as the best in the world.”

After recommending that you oppose Alberto Contador in the Tour de France, and giving punters at the very least the chance to trade out for a profit, the Contrarian is feeling invincible. So he’s taking on the All Blacks at [1.58] in the Tri Nations that they have won seven times in the last nine years. Here’s why…

You should never be too perfect

Obviously, this isn’t advice that the Contrarian follows religiously but it is definitely a lesson worth learning when it comes to the Tri Nations. On all of the previous three occasions that a team has won the Series with a 100 per cent winning record (two of whom were the All Blacks), the champions have been humiliatingly dethroned, finishing bottom in every instance. New Zealand won all six of their games last year but may now regret the heroic comeback from 22-9 down in the final 13 minutes of their closing collision with Australia to complete a clean sweep. The scope for a shock has increased

With the World Cup approaching fast, the latest edition of the Tri Nations features only four fixtures per nation rather than the usual six, and in a shorter tournament, upsets become far more likely, with one slip enough to severely derail a team’s push for first place. Evidence that the four-match format leaves the competition riper for surprises is provided by the fact that New Zealand have won 75 per cent of the lengthier versions, compared to 64 per cent of the briefer ones. The World Cup has to be the priority

New Zealand have triumphed in each of the previous three Tri Nations Series to have taken place during World Cup years, only to then fail miserably weeks later with the more desirable trophy at stake. That perhaps indicates an issue of peaking too soon and given that Tri Nations rivals Australia and South Africa have lifted the World Cup in those years, that the All Blacks require a drastic rethink of their preparations. A stretch of 24 years without the big one is a major stain against the All Blacks’ status as the best in the world (they are [1.88] to win it) and as hosts of the tournament they will be even keener to end that embarrassing record. Australia have halted their losing streak

The All Blacks’ autumn international victories against England, Scotland, Ireland and Wales slightly overshadowed what happened directly before that, as they suffered what now stands as their only defeat in 20 matches over the last 20 months against Australia. The 26-24 success in Hong Kong was a huge result for the Wallabies after ten straight losses to their neighbours. Having won 12 of the 24 meetings that preceded that woeful run, Australia may have renewed confidence and knowledge that they can beat the number one-ranked side, which will in itself lead to a more competitive rivalry. Further proof that the gap is closing is offered by the pair being separated by no more than two points in their last two clashes, whereas New Zealand were on average 17.75 points superior in the four before that. There are doubts over McCaw’s fitness

New Zealand’s captain and star flanker Richie McCaw has had a tough year so far and nobody is fully convinced by his insistence that his fitness issues are behind him. The fourth most prolific try-scorer in Tri Nations history missed much of the recent Super Rugby season for his club the Crusaders and was unimpressive in the semi-finals and final, prompting speculation that he is still struggling ahead of what threatens to be one of the All Blacks’ busiest ever Southern Hemisphere winters.

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