“Much like South Africa several years ago, Sarries feed off the mistakes of others, as evidenced by their accumulation of penalties. Sarries have kicked a staggering 81 penalty goals this season which equates to 3.7 a match.”

Unexpected away wins have been a feature of the Aviva Premiership semi-finals in recent years but Geoffrey Riddle is not expecting that trend to continue this year

With an away win in each of the past three years at the semi-final stage I eagerly awaited the prices about Leicester and Saracens to notch home wins in the knockout stages of the Aviva Premiership this weekend.

Last season Sarries edged out Northampton while London Irish thrashed Harlequins the year before. For their part, Leicester’s famous victory at Kingsholm against a naïve Gloucester in 2008 only highlights that anything is possible when you reach this stage of the season. Saracens are stuck firmly in the winning groove having notched their 11th victory last weekend when they toughed it out against Harlequins to triumph 16-13 at the Stoop.

The run has seen Mark McCall’s side record more wins than table-toppers Leicester this season, and their mean defence has been the foundation on which their title aspirations lie.

Much like South Africa several years ago, Sarries feed off the mistakes of others, as evidenced by their accumulation of penalties. Sarries have kicked a staggering 81 penalty goals this season which equates to 3.7 a match.

To put that in to points terms, Sarries score 11 points a match from penalties. It is the reason that out of the playoff quartet they have scored the fewest points and have crossed the tryline only 35 times.

The encounter at Vicarage Road against Gloucester on Sunday sees a clash of cultures, because where Sarries look to a blitzkrieg strategy that follows route one before they fan out behind their enemy’s defensive lines, Gloucester like to go wide, recycle and go wide again. It will be fascinating to see how the match pans out, but one player who holds the keys to the result is Owen Farrell, the Saracens flyhalf.

Farrell landed 31 of his 39 attempts at goal during the regular season and his ability to defend the line in the face of extreme pressure makes him a prized commodity. It is an asset that his so-called mentor next season, Charlie Hodgson, severely lacks. Perhaps they can teach other next season.

I made Sarries between seven and nine point favourites for this match before Betfair’s 7.5 line went up, but due to the nature of their low-scoring approach Sarries have struggled to break teams down and put them completely to bed this season. As such, I think their win price of [1.33] does not correlate well with the match handicap, and instead Saracens by 1-12 points looks a decent call. Heavy hitters should consider the [1.33] about the home side.

The Midlands grudge match between Leicester and Northampton on Saturday promises to be the game of the playoffs and the layers are correct to consider the Tigers only five point favourites.

Leicester have played fast and loose in the latter half of the season, and Gloucester exposed them horribly when securing a 41-41 draw at Welford Road.

Northampton have the back-three to cause tremendous damage, but so do Leicester and total match points look on the low side at Betfair’s 40.5 mark.

What I find hard to comprehend, however, is that with a more difficult match this weekend Leicester are so short to win the Grand Final.

By my ratings, and several other ratings systems such as

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