“Before the semi-finals, I suggested that Sarries looked value at [2.88] to take the Grand Final and, even at the current price of [2.54], there’s room for manoeuvre, especially for traders.”

Geoffrey Riddle is confident that Sarries’ imperious defence can halt the Tigers’ juggernaut in the Aviva Premiership final.

Saracens look value to strangle Leicester at

There has been only one better defensive unit in the whole of Premiership history – Bath in 2003-2004 – and Mark McCall’s side can halt the Leicester juggernaut. Just before the semi-finals I suggested that Sarries looked value at [2.88] to take the Grand Final and even at the current price of [2.54] there is still room for manoeuvre, especially for traders.

The Men In Black cast a shadow over Leicester, having won three of the last four encounters. It is easy to argue that Leicester won the match that really mattered, last year’s final at Twickenham, but Sarries were leading 27-26 with three minutes to go before Danny Hipkiss issued the coup de grace. Remember the inspirational Brendan Venter was not on hand to galvanise his troops as he was still serving a 10-match touchline ban. Admittedly, Saracens’ past two successes over Leicester were when neither team was at full strength, but to win at Welford Road is always special – just ask the Wallabies.

Saracens are also in an incredible run of form, having won 11 on the bounce. It is a remarkable achievement, with only Leicester’s 17 in the 1999-2000 season bettering it. The momentum they carry into this final is extraordinary in comparison to all the problems that beset Leicester in the lead-up to this fixture.

At a time when all the concentration should be on the most important match of the domestic season, it is a small but significant advantage for the underdogs. Leicester’s dour 11-3 victory over the Saints in the first semi-final confirmed that the Tigers are vulnerable to a team as streetwise as Sarries.

Richard Cockerill’s troops were the most prolific scorers in the section this season, amassing 594 points. It puts them second only to the Wasps vintage of 2007-2008 (599 points) since the 2004-2005 season when Leicester scored 665 points. Leicester lost 39-14 to Wasps that year.

I feared that whoever pitched up to face Leicester in the final would struggle to contain their free-scoring ability but without Manu Tuilagi, and Northampton putting the shackles on a fortnight ago, it is possible.

Saracens gameplan extends to kicking for position and then using their significant lineout ability to put a hold on proceedings. Leicester have one of the most incisive attacks around, but if Sarries can keep them at arms length the reigning champions could struggle.

Leicester were [2.86] to triumph in the Grand Final at the beginning of the season. They have reached their seventh successive Premiership final and are chasing their eighth Premiership crown. In contrast Sarries have yet to win a trophy since their 1998 Tetley Bitter Cup triumph. The odds are stacked against them, but not by perhaps as much as the Betfair layers might have you believe.

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